by Evan Rosenman

Introduction

America’s political leadership has diversified considerably in the last half century. After the 1976 elections, 90% of America’s governors were non-Hispanic White men, and the percentages were even higher for members of the House and the Senate [1-3]. A half century later, only about 55% of House seats are held by non-Hispanic White men, with corresponding proportions of 64% in the Senate and 68% among governors [4-7]. 

This change in leadership has proceeded in fits and starts. The 1992 election – widely dubbed “The Year of the Woman” – was a watershed: the number of women in the Senate tripled to six, while the number of women in the House grew from 28 to 47 [8]. The election was also a milestone in Black representation: owing partially to redistricting after the 1990 Census and changes to the Voting Rights Act, membership in the Congressional Black Caucus jumped from 27 to 40 [9]. The 2018 midterms represented another major advance in leadership diversity, with significant increases in the number of women and minorities in Congress, while 2020 saw further increases for women in the House [10]. 

The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be another landmark year for diversity. Yet the election is particularly fraught for African American representation. While the nation may elect more Black governors on Tuesday than in its entire prior history, the number of Black congresspeople may decline for the first time in a decade, due in part to the redistricting wars and the elimination of Black-majority seats. Simultaneously, women are poised to hold more governorships than ever before, and make meaningful gains in the House. 

“The Year of the Black Governor” – but a Decline in House Representation

In the 250-year history of the United States, there have only been three elected Black state governors, all of whom were Democrats: Douglas Wilder (Virginia, 1990–1994), Deval Patrick (Massachusetts, 2007–2015), and Wes Moore (Maryland, 2023–present).

On Tuesday, Moore is certain to win a second term. But four more African American gubernatorial candidates could plausibly win election, meaning there could be more Black governors elected on Tuesday than in all of U.S. history. Two candidates – Wisconsin Democrat David Crowley and Florida Republican Byron Donalds – are favored to win, with the Cook Political Report rating their races as “Lean Democratic” and “Lean Republican,” respectively [11]. Donalds would be the first Black Republican elected to a governorship in the United States.

Two other candidates are in “Toss-Up” races: Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia and Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada. Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, faces Republican Rick Jackson in a hotly contested race to replace outgoing Governor Brian Kemp. If elected, she would be the first Black woman to serve as governor of a U.S. state. Concurrently, Aaron Ford, the current Nevada attorney general, is challenging incumbent Joe Lombardo for the governorship. While Lombardo was initially favored, the strong Democratic early vote has rendered the race a coin flip [12]. 

Several other Black candidates have been nominated by major parties, including Republicans Lisa Demuth of Minnesota and John James in Michigan and Democrats Frederick Love of Arkansas and Jermaine Johnson of South Carolina. But none of these candidates are favored in their respective races. 

The possible elevation of multiple Black governors comes at a difficult moment for Black representation. The next House of Representatives will likely seat fewer Black congresspeople than the current one. As noted above, the decline in representation is driven largely by redistricting. Some Black incumbents – including Marc Veasey (D, TX-33), Al Green (D, TX-09), and Burgess Owens (R, UT-04) – had their seats redrawn early in the cycle, and did not seek reelection or lost renomination as a result. Then, in April 2026, the Supreme Court released its Louisiana v. Callais decision, weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and allowing states to eliminate majority-minority districts. Black opportunity districts were subsequently eliminated or redrawn in Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida. These changes led to the retirement of Black lawmaker Cleo Fields (LA-06) and made Black Congressman Shomari Figures (AL-02) an underdog for reelection. 

A second, unrelated factor in the representational decline is that the three other Black Republican congressmen – gubernatorial contenders James and Donalds, along with Wesley Hunt (TX-38) – all sought higher office and will not be returning to the House. 

Therefore, it is plausible that the next Congress could have 58 or fewer Black congresspeople, at least three below the current tally of 61. This would represent the largest decline in the number of Black House members between consecutive Congresses since Reconstruction [13]. Moreover, several additional states may eliminate majority-minority districts before the 2028 elections [14, 15].

A final bright spot for Black representation is the Senate, where seats cannot be gerrymandered. There are currently five African American U.S. senators, four of whom are Democrats. Their numbers are almost certain to grow to six, another record, with the election of Democrat Juliana Stratton in Illinois. The Democratic candidates for Senate in Florida and Mississippi are also Black – and Florida has seen surprisingly strong Democratic early vote [16] – but each candidate is still considered to have a slim chance at victory [17]. 

A New High for Female Governors and Congresswomen

The midterm elections are also likely to increase female representation among governors and congresspeople. The growth will be driven primarily by Democrats. According to an analysis by FiftyPlusOne, a record number of Democratic women ran for gubernatorial and congressional seats this cycle [18]. Women comprise about 45% of Democratic nominees across all types of seats, and the majority of the party’s nominees for governor [18]. 

This development is striking because, until recently, progress for women at the gubernatorial level had stalled out. A record of nine women served as governors simultaneously in 2004, and that record was tied, but never broken, for nearly two decades. Women also tended to be elected governor of smaller states; until 2020, seven of the ten most populous states had never elected a female executive. These trends began to change in 2021, when Kathy Hochul became governor of New York, the fourth most populous state. The following year, 12 women were elected governor. The record was broken again last year, when Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill were elected governor in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, bringing the record to 14. 

This year, female candidates are favored to win 13 gubernatorial races [11]. Spanberger and Sherrill are not up for election, meaning there are likely to be at least 15 female governors next year. That total could rise further: Bottoms in Georgia and Democrat Cindy Holscher in Kansas are both in Toss-Up races, while female Democratic nominees are rated as competitive underdogs in Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Vermont. 

Today, almost exactly one quarter of Americans live in a state with a female governor. If all favored candidates prevail, and Bottoms and Holscher also win, that number would grow to a third of Americans. Further wins in Texas and beyond could mean more than 40% of Americans would have a female governor in 2027. 

Women are also set to achieve gains in representation in the House, though the uptick will likely be smaller than in 1992, 2018, or 2020. There are currently 125 congresswomen. Aggregating female candidates’ win probabilities on the prediction market Kalshi yields an expected value of roughly 136 female victories on Tuesday [19]. Similar calculations using other forecasts and race ratings – including those from the Cook Political Report and FiftyPlusOne – tend to yield expected values between 132 and 135 [20-23]. Any of these tallies would set a record and would mean that women exceed 30% representation in the House of Representatives for the first time. 

Women may not make corresponding gains in the Senate, where they currently hold a record 27 seats (16 of them Democrats, 11 of them Republicans). Stratton and Louisiana Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow will likely replace incumbent male senators, but outgoing New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will be replaced by a man. Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins is also locked in a tight race for reelection, while Democrats’ only competitive female candidate against a male incumbent is in Alaska, where former Congresswoman Mary Peltola is their nominee. Moreover, Senators Amy Klobuchar (D, MN) and Marsha Blackburn (R, TN) are both very likely to be elected governor on Tuesday and will thus be departing from the Senate next year. 

Other Representational Milestones

Many other important representational milestones will be reached on Tuesday. California, a plurality Hispanic state, is likely to elect its first Latino governor in Democrat Xavier Becerra (California’s only previous Latino governor, Romualdo Pacheco, was not elected to that office but served briefly after succeeding to the governorship as lieutenant governor). American Indian and Alaska Native communities could also attain greater representation in government. Democrat Deb Haaland is likely to become the first Native American female governor of a U.S. state. If victorious, Democrats Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota and Peltola of Alaska would be the first-ever female Native American and Alaska Native senators, respectively. 

Beyond these individual records, the midterms will be the first nationwide elections since the Callais decision. The nation is entering perhaps the most unsettled era in minority voter protections since the passage of the Voting Rights Act. Only time will tell whether America’s leadership continues to better reflect its populace. 

Disclosure: OpenAI’s ChatGPT tool was used for help in conducting research, fact-checking, editing, and formatting citations for this article. All primary sources have been checked and the author takes responsibility for the content herein.

Bibliography

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